We estimated the likely flow-on effects for local SF businesses, workers, consumers, and taxpayers, based on real-life experiences of other communities.

Key Findings:

• Jobs at risk: Over 10,000 SF jobs may be at risk between 2026 and 2027, with 50% of losses concentrated in grocery and food retail.
• Wage losses: Total wage losses are estimated at $574 million in 2027.
  • On average, SF workers could lose over $1,000 per year.
  • Workers in grocery and food retail could lose over 7x more in wages – around $7,550 per worker.
• Reduced business profitability: In low-margin sectors like grocery and food retail, the increased tax could absorb some 20–25% of typical profit margins.
  • Up to 1,500 SF businesses – across all industries – face sustained pressure on profitability, raising the risk that businesses will downsize or exit the city.
• Consumer prices: Higher business costs will be passed on to consumers, at least in part.
  • In 2027, consumer prices will likely increase by an additional 1%–0.2%; roughly 8–10 times higher than the 2026 impact.
• Low-income households are hit hardest as they spend a larger share of their income on everyday essentials.
  • In 2027, lower-income households could face around 3–4 times the relative cost burden of higher-income households.
  • Income losses for these households could reduce total spending across the SF economy by over $2 for every $1 of income they lose.
• Tax revenue at risk: Even a 5% reduction in qualifying business receipts due to downsizing, relocation or restructuring of SF businesses could eliminate up to $15 million from officially projected OET revenues in 2027 alone.