PPG assessed the impact on workers, consumers, and small businesses if Poland implements the EU Platform Work Directive (PWD) that reclassifies courier partners as employees.
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How reclassification could move through Poland’s delivery economy
Reclassification affects more than the contractual relationship between platforms and Courier Partners. The model identifies a chain of effects beginning with higher employment costs and extending through consumer prices, demand, working hours, earnings, merchant sales and ultimately the number of people able to participate in app-based delivery work.
9 – 12%
Rise in app-based delivery prices for consumers
5 – 14%
Fall in consumer demand for app-based delivery
13K – 37K
Courier Partner working hours lost each week
24 – 71M zł
Annual Courier Partner earnings lost (net of expenses)
184 – 534M zł
Annual merchant revenue lost in 2025 (rising to 250–750M zł by 2030)
75 – 78%
Fall in earning opportunities, from around 52,000 to as few as 11,000
Higher employment costs could raise delivery prices by 9–12%
Under an employment model, the analysis estimates that platforms would face an additional employer contribution equivalent to 20.48% of gross compensation for Courier Partners who currently fall below the relevant contribution threshold. This group represents more than 60% of the workforce considered in the analysis.
Figure 1: Consumer demand for app-based delivery after reclassification (% of current demand)
Using price elasticities of −0.55 to −1.2, a 9–12% rise in delivery prices is estimated to reduce consumer demand by around 5–14%, leaving 86–95% of current demand.
Current demand
100%
Demand lost
5–14%
Demand remaining
86–95%
Note: Current demand = 100%. Bars show the midpoint of each modeled range. Source: PPG, Poland App-Based Delivery Work in 2025 (2025).
The first economic channel: higher employment costs raise the cost of providing delivery services. When a substantial portion of that increase reaches consumers, higher prices begin to reduce the number of orders placed through delivery platforms.
TWO SCENARIOS TEST THE IMPACT OF RECLASSIFICATION
The analysis starts with anonymised industry data on Courier Partner participation, working hours, earnings and merchant activity. It then models how higher employment costs could flow through to consumer prices, delivery demand and the amount of work available across Poland’s app-based delivery sector.
Table 1: Key assumptions in the base and downside scenarios
Model Assumption
Base Case
Downside Case
Additional cost
75%
100%
Price elasticity of demand
−0.55
−1.2
Fixed working schedules
20 or 40 hrs/week
20 or 40 hrs/week
Note: “Additional cost” is the share of higher employment costs passed on to consumers. Price elasticity of demand is the % change in orders for each 1% rise in price. Source: PPG, Poland App-Based Delivery Work in 2025 (2025).
Why use two scenarios: Rather than relying on a single forecast, the analysis tests both partial and full cost pass-through alongside different levels of consumer sensitivity. This produces a range of potential outcomes for prices, demand, worker earnings and earning opportunities.