PPG assessed the impact on workers, consumers, and small businesses in Lithuania if Courier Partners on app-based delivery platforms are forcibly reclassified as traditional employees from their current status as independent contractors.
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Key findings at a glance
Reclassification could reshape Lithuania’s delivery ecosystem
Changes to employment status would affect much more than platform operating costs. The modelling shows potential consequences for consumer prices, demand, worker income, local merchant revenues and flexible earning opportunities.
32 – 43%
Rise in app-based delivery prices for consumers
18 – 51%
Fall in consumer demand for app-based delivery
11K – 32K
Courier Partner working hours lost each week
€6 – 17.5M
Annual Courier Partner earnings lost (net of expenses)
€26 – 76M
Local merchant revenue lost in 2025 (rising to €37–107M by 2030)
6K – 7K
Earning opportunities lost, 70–82% of the current market
Annual earnings could fall by up to €17.5 million
Using an assumed net hourly earnings rate of €10.55, the decline in available work translates into an estimated €6–17.5 million reduction in annual Courier Partner earnings.
Figure 1: Reduction in annual Courier Partner earnings (€ million, net of expenses)
A loss of 11,000–32,000 weekly working hours, at average net earnings of €10.55 an hour, reduces annual Courier Partner earnings by €6–17.5 million.
Lower estimate
€6M
Upper estimate
€17.5M
Note: Annual earnings lost, net of expenses. Source: PPG, Lithuania App-Based Delivery Work in 2025 (August 2025), Fig. 3.
Income at risk: Lower order volumes would reduce both the number of hours available and the total income generated through app-based delivery work.
Lithuanian merchants could lose up to €76 million in 2025
Lower demand for delivery services would also mean fewer orders placed with local restaurants and retailers. This is particularly significant because SMEs account for approximately 99.8% of Lithuanian enterprises.
Table 1: Estimated losses for local merchants and government
Economic Impact
Estimate
Period
Merchant Revenue
€26–76M
2025
Merchant Revenue
€37–107M
2030
Corporate Tax
€1.1–4.0M
Annual
Note: Merchant revenue is annual revenue lost by local merchants; corporate tax is the annual fall in government corporate income tax revenue. Source: PPG, Lithuania App-Based Delivery Work in 2025 (August 2025).
Beyond delivery platforms: Lower order volumes could reduce revenues for local SMEs while also decreasing corporate and personal income tax receipts for government.