Independent economic research & policy analysis.
Understanding the Economic Consequences of Courier Reclassification
PPG assessed the potential impact on workers, consumers, and small businesses in Kazakhstan if Courier Partners on app-based delivery platforms were forcibly reclassified as traditional employees, rather than retaining their status as independent contractors.
37–50%
Rise in app-based delivery prices for consumers
₸48–140B
Annual revenue lost by local merchants
38K–46K
Courier earning opportunities eliminated
71–85%
Share of currently available earning opportunities lost
₸13–37B
Annual earnings lost by Courier Partners
₸700M–2.1B
Annual fall in government tax revenue from business earnings
Rising Delivery Prices and Declining Business Revenue
Consumer prices for app-based delivery services could rise by 37–50%, placing a disproportionate burden on low- and middle-income households.
These higher prices could suppress demand for local commerce, resulting in annual revenue losses of ₸48–140 billion, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) bearing the greatest impact, given their central role in Kazakhstan’s economy and the livelihoods they support.
Figure 1: Potential annual revenue losses for local commerce in 2026 (₸ billion)
Delivery price rises of 37–50% could reduce local merchants’ annual revenue by ₸48–140 billion.
Lower estimate
₸48B
Upper estimate
₸140B
Note: Annual revenue lost by local merchants in 2026. Source: PPG, Kazakhstan App-Based Delivery Work in 2026 (March 2026), Fig. 3.
Consumer prices could increase by 37–50%, while local commerce could experience annual revenue losses of ₸48–140 billion.
Kazakhstan’s merchants could lose up to ₸140 billion in 2026
Lower consumer demand for app-based delivery would also mean fewer orders for local restaurants and retailers. This is particularly important in Kazakhstan, where SMEs account for approximately 99.9% of enterprises.
Table 1: Estimated losses for local merchants and government
Economic Impact
Estimate
Period
Merchant Revenue
₸48–140B
2026
Merchant Revenue
₸83–242B
2030
Government CIT
₸0.7–2.1B
Annual
Note: Merchant revenue is annual revenue lost by local merchants; Government CIT is the annual fall in corporate income tax revenue. Source: PPG, Kazakhstan App-Based Delivery Work in 2026 (March 2026).
Beyond the platforms: Reduced delivery demand could flow directly into Kazakhstan’s local commerce ecosystem, affecting SME revenues and reducing corporate income tax receipts for government.
