The Bus Industry Confederation (BIC) commissioned PPG to help prepare a policy position paper on the best pathway to zero emissions for the bus industry.
Independent economic research & policy analysis.
Civic advocacy for San Francisco’s future.
Key findings at a glance
Buses are uniquely positioned to lead Australia’s heavy-vehicle transition
Public transport and school buses operate highly scheduled, fixed-route and back-to-base services. This makes charging and refuelling requirements more predictable than for many other heavy vehicles and creates an ideal environment for testing emerging technologies.
1,500
Australian buses that are already low- or zero-emissions
$38.8B
Congestion costs Australia could avoid each year by shifting to public transport
10+ Years
Procurement pipeline visibility the bus industry needs to invest with confidence
17.7
Homes’ worth of energy used by one electric bus each day
320
Solar panels needed to power one electric bus each day
85,000
Australian workers who rely on the bus industry for their livelihood
Up to 168,000 workers may require new skills
Transitioning to zero-emission vehicles requires more than new buses. Drivers, technicians, electricians, emergency responders, manufacturers and infrastructure workers will all require updated knowledge and nationally recognised credentials.
Figure 1: Workforce needs for the zero-emission transition (number of workers)
Up to 168,000 workers may need training in new skills for zero-emission vehicles and infrastructure, while the electrician shortfall is expected to reach 32,000 by 2030, with a further 85,000 needed by 2050.
Workers needing new skills
168,000
Electrician shortfall by 2030
32,000
More electricians needed by 2050
85,000
Note: Categories overlap and should not be added together. Source: Bus Industry Confederation, Driving Towards Zero-Emissions (June 2024), prepared with PPG and Magenta Advisory; electrician estimates from the Electrical Trades Union.
A national skills challenge: Without harmonised training and credentials, industry may need to duplicate workforce programs across as many as eight different state and territory systems, increasing cost and complexity.
Zero-emission buses require significantly greater upfront investment
The purchase price of the vehicle is only one component of the transition. Operators must also account for depot upgrades, charging or refuelling infrastructure, grid connections, maintenance requirements and other supporting capital expenditure.
Table 1: Approximate purchase cost of a new bus, by technology (A$)
Bus Technology
Approx. Cost
Cost VS Diesel
Diesel bus
~$735,000
Baseline
Battery electric bus
~$840,000
+~$105,000
Fuel cell electric bus
~$1.4 million
+~$665,000
Note: Vehicle purchase price only; excludes depot upgrades, charging or refuelling infrastructure, grid connections and maintenance. “Cost vs diesel” is the additional upfront cost compared with a diesel bus. Source: Bus Industry Confederation, Driving Towards Zero-Emissions (June 2024).
The infrastructure challenge: The vehicle price alone understates the true cost of transition. Depot upgrades, electricity connections, charging equipment and hydrogen infrastructure can require substantial additional capital, with individual hydrogen refuelling stations potentially costing more than $5 million.